I was just reading a five page abstract (via getabstract.com) of a new book, “Black Swan” about the impact of unusual events. That quote jumped out at me. How true that is! We call people experts who can look at the past and explain why it happened - narration. Yet the vast majority of “experts” are completely unable to predict the future with an accuracy. This applies in any area of expertise - investment is the most obvious one, but far from the only one.
Maybe a real expert is someone who says “I don’t know what will happen, but these are the sort of things that can help us prepare for just about an eventuality, be they good or bad”.